in recent years, china′s caustic soda products have been in a net export state, with annual export volume accounting for about 5%-10% of production.
(1) ；import analysis
under normal circumstances, china′s caustic soda imports are very small, with annual imports basically at the level of 10,000-20,000 tons. the import volume showed significant changes in the four years from 2018 to 2021 due to multiple reasons. in 2022-2023, china′s caustic soda imports returned to normal levels, with annual imports of 10,000-20,000 tons.
1) ；india implemented that all liquid alkali imports required to provide the bureau of india standards (bis) licenses in september 2018. the license application process took 3-6 months. northeast asia producers postponed exporting contract shipments to india, and some of the japanese cargo that was blocked from reaching india was sold at lower prices in china. since november 2018, the number of liquid alkali imports to china has surged. in 2019, china′s import volume of caustic soda reached 70,000 tons, the highest level in recent years.
2) ；from 2020 to 2021, china′s import volume of caustic soda remained at 40,000-50,000 tons. during certain periods of the year, there was a certain price difference between the domestic and foreign caustic soda markets. domestic traders flexibly imported foreign caustic soda products, with the main import sources being liquid alkali from qatar, oman, and saudi arabia, and flake alkali from japan.
(2) ；export analysis
from 2018 to 2023, china′s caustic soda exports showed phased changes:
1) ；from 2018 to 2020, as the domestic and foreign prices of caustic soda in china reversed, enterprises had low enthusiasm for exporting. most enterprises focused on exec　uting long-term orders to mainly maintain their existing customers, leading to a continuous decline in export volume.
2) ；from 2021 to 2023, driven by multiple favorable factors such as the growth of downstream demand in countries like australia and indonesia and insufficient supply of foreign liquid alkali, china′s liquid alkali export volume increased significantly. in 2022, the liquid alkali export volume reached 2.66 million tons, and the total caustic soda export volume reached 3.25 million tons, the highest level in recent years. in addition, due to changes in international energy supply, local chlor-alkali facilities in europe operated at reduced capacity, leading to a decrease in liquid alkali supply. europe increased its imports of caustic soda, which also provided favorable support for china′s liquid alkali exports. in 2022, china exported 340,000 tons of liquid alkali to europe.
3) ；in 2023, spot transactions of liquid alkali in the international market were concentrated in southeast asia, and the competition pressure for supply of goods has increased, which had a certain impact on china′s export market for liquid alkali. additionally, china′s export volume of liquid alkali to europe in 2023 decreased significantly compared to 2022, weakening the support for the export market. from january to november, china exported a total of 2.334 million tons of caustic soda, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%. among them, the export volume of liquid alkali was 1.847 million tons, down 21.3% year-on-year, and the export volume of solid alkali was 487,000 tons, down 9.5% year-on-year.