The latest data released by the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association shows that the average operating rate of Japanese naphtha cracking units fell to a historic low of 75% in June, a further decline from 76.1% in May. Ethylene production decreased by 14% month on month to 358,300 tons., compared with the previous lowest record at 75.1% in March 2025.

There are currently 12 sets of naphtha cracking units in Japan, with a total annual ethylene production capacity of 6.509 million tons. Two of them were shut down for maintenance in June. According to market insiders, the operating rate of Japanese naphtha cracking units may remain low due to the continuous negative profit margin. According to Platts data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the assessed price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained stable at USD 820/ton on July 22, while the price of naphtha in Japan fell by USD 6.50/ton to USD 566.375/ton during the same period. Recently, the price difference between ethylene and naphtha was USD 253.625/ton, while integrated upstream and downstream producers required a price difference of USD 250/ton for breakeven and non-integrated producers required it at USD 300-350/ton.