S&P Predicts Growing Expectations for Global PVC Production Cuts
2026-1-7
In 2025, the price of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin continued to decline. For 2026, the market generally anticipates that there will be no turning point in PVC demand, while calls for production cuts are mounting. A relevant person in charge at S&P Global Energy pointed out that although global PVC trade volume in 2025 was expected to set a new export record, it failed to ease the pressure of oversupply. The core crux lies in the fact that prices dropped to a 20-year low, pushing most producers into losses and forcing them to seek price increases or phased production cuts to wait for a market recovery.
On December 15, 2025, Westlake Chemical announced the shutdown of one of its PVC plants. This move further strengthened the market¡äs expectation of supply contraction and price increases in early 2026. A distributor analyzed that the decision sends a clear signal that the current cost and profit structure is unsustainable, and producers have no choice but to take proactive and radical adjustment measures, even if they have to endure short-term pains.
Beyond production cut expectations, the Indian market has emerged as a core variable influencing PVC price trends in 2026. The previously closely watched new quality control regulations by the Bureau of Indian Standards were revoked, and the anti-dumping investigation period targeting multiple countries expired without an extension announcement. In such context, the price of PVC resin in India has seen one of the steepest declines globally, down by more than 30% from December 2024 to December 2025 according to data from Platts Energy Information. The impact of changes in the Indian market on U.S. PVC exports remains controversial. Some opinions hold that U.S. producers should avoid intense competition from regional products in India. Indian industry insiders note that despite calls for increasing imports from the Middle East and the United States, there are significant divergences among various parties, and PVC goods originating from Asia will continue to dominate the Indian PVC market in the first half of 2026. However, other views suggest that after India¡äs revocation of control measures, the possibility of U.S. PVC gaining a larger market share has increased.
Other regional markets show obvious differentiation. In the European market, cautious optimism is emerging as progress has been made in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. If a formal agreement is reached, post-war reconstruction will drive PVC demand. The German government has pledged to invest 300 billion euros in infrastructure construction over the next 12 years, further supporting demand growth. The Brazilian market presents a complex picture: although the unemployment rate is at a historic low and rising household incomes have driven an increase in the start of real estate projects against the trend, PVC demand remains uncertain in recent months. Due to Brazil¡äs imposition of anti-dumping duties on U.S. PVC and the maintenance of tariff barriers against Asia, Brazilian PVC buyers have been forced to switch to purchases from tariff-exempt countries such as Colombia, Argentina, and Egypt, which have become its largest supply sources.
U.S. PVC exports face multiple tariff hurdles. The European Union has imposed definitive anti-dumping duties of 58% to 77% on U.S. PVC since January 2026, eroding the competitiveness of its products. Additonally, the Mexican government has also launched an anti-dumping investigation into U.S. suspension PVC. Despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, the relevant person in charge at S&P Global Energy predicts that global PVC trade volume will remain high in 2026, without significant changes in trade flows.
At the same time, global expectations for production cuts continue to rise. In the Asian market, as oversupply pressure continues to intensify, the market generally expects production cuts to improve the supply-demand balance. Some marginal plants in Asia have already fallen into losses, indicating a high possibility of production cuts in the region. Market sentiment in the United States is similar to that in Asia. As previous production cuts due to plant maintenance temporarily halted the decline in PVC prices, traders expect the supply tightening trend to continue though no producer has publicly announced plans to adjust operating rates. Analysts point out that if U.S. PVC operating rates remain around 80%, supply to Latin America may achieve a tight balance. If operating rates resume, U.S. products will have to compete directly with Asian PVC in the African, Middle Eastern, and Indian markets.
On December 15, 2025, Westlake Chemical announced the shutdown of one of its PVC plants. This move further strengthened the market¡äs expectation of supply contraction and price increases in early 2026. A distributor analyzed that the decision sends a clear signal that the current cost and profit structure is unsustainable, and producers have no choice but to take proactive and radical adjustment measures, even if they have to endure short-term pains.
Beyond production cut expectations, the Indian market has emerged as a core variable influencing PVC price trends in 2026. The previously closely watched new quality control regulations by the Bureau of Indian Standards were revoked, and the anti-dumping investigation period targeting multiple countries expired without an extension announcement. In such context, the price of PVC resin in India has seen one of the steepest declines globally, down by more than 30% from December 2024 to December 2025 according to data from Platts Energy Information. The impact of changes in the Indian market on U.S. PVC exports remains controversial. Some opinions hold that U.S. producers should avoid intense competition from regional products in India. Indian industry insiders note that despite calls for increasing imports from the Middle East and the United States, there are significant divergences among various parties, and PVC goods originating from Asia will continue to dominate the Indian PVC market in the first half of 2026. However, other views suggest that after India¡äs revocation of control measures, the possibility of U.S. PVC gaining a larger market share has increased.
Other regional markets show obvious differentiation. In the European market, cautious optimism is emerging as progress has been made in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. If a formal agreement is reached, post-war reconstruction will drive PVC demand. The German government has pledged to invest 300 billion euros in infrastructure construction over the next 12 years, further supporting demand growth. The Brazilian market presents a complex picture: although the unemployment rate is at a historic low and rising household incomes have driven an increase in the start of real estate projects against the trend, PVC demand remains uncertain in recent months. Due to Brazil¡äs imposition of anti-dumping duties on U.S. PVC and the maintenance of tariff barriers against Asia, Brazilian PVC buyers have been forced to switch to purchases from tariff-exempt countries such as Colombia, Argentina, and Egypt, which have become its largest supply sources.
U.S. PVC exports face multiple tariff hurdles. The European Union has imposed definitive anti-dumping duties of 58% to 77% on U.S. PVC since January 2026, eroding the competitiveness of its products. Additonally, the Mexican government has also launched an anti-dumping investigation into U.S. suspension PVC. Despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, the relevant person in charge at S&P Global Energy predicts that global PVC trade volume will remain high in 2026, without significant changes in trade flows.
At the same time, global expectations for production cuts continue to rise. In the Asian market, as oversupply pressure continues to intensify, the market generally expects production cuts to improve the supply-demand balance. Some marginal plants in Asia have already fallen into losses, indicating a high possibility of production cuts in the region. Market sentiment in the United States is similar to that in Asia. As previous production cuts due to plant maintenance temporarily halted the decline in PVC prices, traders expect the supply tightening trend to continue though no producer has publicly announced plans to adjust operating rates. Analysts point out that if U.S. PVC operating rates remain around 80%, supply to Latin America may achieve a tight balance. If operating rates resume, U.S. products will have to compete directly with Asian PVC in the African, Middle Eastern, and Indian markets.