Market sources recently indicated that affected by production curtailments and scheduled maintenance of regional cracking units, as well as persistent disruptions to the global raw material supply chain caused by geopolitical conflicts, the tight domestic ethylene supply in Europe will hardly ease from April to May. Near-term spot import cargoes from the Transatlantic and Asia are extremely scarce, while overseas export volumes are largely locked under long-term contracts, with very limited spot cargo available for immediate delivery.

Market reports show that near-month import procurement negotiations in Europe have basically stalled during April–May. European downstream manufacturers and traders have postponed nearly all cross-border import inquiries, price discussions and procurement bargaining to June shipment cargoes. The market generally expects global export supply, ocean shipping schedules and the flexibility of spot supply to gradually improve by the middle of the second quarter. The fundamentally tight domestic ethylene supply in Europe underpins firm spot prices and strong contract prices.

Faced with supply uncertainty, downstream polyethylene processors continue to focus on securing forward cargoes. No additional cracking unit restarts or new capacity commissioning are scheduled in Europe in the next two months, leaving the regional supply gap unable to be improved rapidly. Market attention will focus on June import arrivals, the recovery pace of global export supply, and monthly ethylene contract settlement prices in Europe.